639 FXUS63 KABR 100910 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Precipitation continues to pivot around a 700mb low centered around the Huron area. A heavier band is moving through the James Valley early this morning and accumulated a quick half inch to an inch of snow. As soon as intensity slacked off, though, the snow began to melt on paved surfaces. This is a pattern that is expected to continue through the day, especially after sunrise, since temperatures are hovering above freezing. The wraparound deformation zone will continue to push east today with the upper low. Without development of intense bands with rates of an inch an hour, however, do not expect the advisory accumulations will come close to materializing on anything but grassy surfaces without the sfc temp being at or below 32F. The dry slot has moved into southeastern/eastern SD, so still think that will be a major factor in reducing accumulations across that region. Ample 925mb moisture will remain entrenched from the Missouri River to west central MN through early Thursday morning. This means the stratus is unlikely to exit with the storm system this evening. Kept overcast conditions in the forecast through early Thursday morning for most of the region. Temperatures, however, are forecast to fall into the 20s tonight even with the blanketing clouds as H85 temps fall to around -8C with the sfc high dropping down from Canada. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Surface high pressure will be over the region on Thursday with breezy northwest winds continuing for eastern portions of the CWA. With 850 mb temps remaining around -5C during the day, expect highs to be stuck in the 30s for most areas east of the Missouri. Pretty cold temps in store Thursday night as winds remain rather light, although we will see some degree of increasing clouds as shortwave trough moves through. Lows look to dip into the low to mid 20s for north central through northeast SD into west central MN. Next blast of cold air looks to move in on Saturday and will remain with us through Sunday night. GFS/EC in fairly good agreement in bringing the potent cold front through the area Saturday morning, with sharply falling 925/850 mb temps during the afternoon. Given this scenario, we would likely see falling temps throughout the day on Saturday. Winds look pretty stout on Saturday as well and used more of a CONSMOS feel. The cold air mass remains in place on Sunday with highs only in the 30s. With light winds Sunday night, looking likely to see widespread 20s for lows, and would not be surprised if the James valley snuck into the teens for lows. Of course, this would need light winds and mostly clear skies for this to happen so will continue to monitor and make adjustments as necessary. As for precipitation, just a few weak disturbances pass through the region, nothing that looks well organized with significant precipitation. Weak wave slides across southern SD Thursday night through Friday morning, with perhaps some mixed precipitation over the southwest CWA - amounts look to be on the light side. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Conditions are forecast to remain below VFR over the next 24 hours due to a combination of stratus clouds and reduced visibility in drizzle, rain, snow and fog. Rain is moving north and west across the forecast area. Between 06Z and 12Z, the p- type will transition to snow at KABR, KPIR and KMBG. Eventually, KATY will see the p-type change too, but probably not until late morning/early afternoon on Wednesday. Mainly between 07Z and 15Z Wednesday, the rainfall at KATY may slacken to periods of drizzle. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006>008-011-018-021. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Wise