355 FXUS65 KABQ 111140 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will continue to move south over easter NM this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing behind the front. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the rest of the region. An upper level trough approaching from the northwest will bring isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms to northern and far eastern NM this afternoon. Southwest winds will gust to about 35 knots at KLVS this afternoon, while winds elsewhere will gust to 20 kt to 25 kt. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible in the stronger showers and thunderstorms across northern and far eastern NM this afternoon and evening. Low cigs will probably return to KTCC and should develop at KROW later tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MDT Thu Oct 11 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Low clouds will continue to plague northeast New Mexico this morning and may expand along the Texas border this afternoon. Temperatures will remain cool. Otherwise, a few thunderstorms are possible today across northwest and portions of eastern New Mexico. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio are still on track to cross southern New Mexico Friday night through mid day Saturday. Much of the rainfall accumulation is expected south of a Quemado to Tucumcari line. Flooding is not expected. Right after Sergio remnants exit the state, winter may say hello! A potent storm system combined with a cold front and much cooler temperatures will arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Several inches of snow will be possible for the northern mountains and portions of northeast New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Very interesting week ahead, though today will be dullest of the next several. Low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog will persist across northeast NM this morning, and may expand southward along the Texas border through the afternoon. High temps will struggle due to the cloud cover, but breezy southerly winds by the afternoon may balance that out some. A few thunderstorms remain possible across eastern NM this afternoon, though may be west of the cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across northwest NM where fast, but weakly perturbed, west-southwest flow aloft exists. The remnants of T.S. Sergio are still expected to shift over the Baja early Friday, then across southern NM Friday night through mid day Saturday. The GFS has shifted the area of heaviest precipitation northward a bit, but other models remain persistent that the heaviest rainfall will be across southern NM. Rainfall amounts look to be around one quarter to three quarters of an inch. Flooding is not expected. From tropical rainfall to winter storm? It is looking more and more possible. After Sergio exits NM on Saturday afternoon, a potent northern stream trough will dive southward across the Rockies Saturday night into Sunday. An associated cold front will race southward through the state Saturday night, and temperatures will plummet for Sunday, especially behind the back door segment of the front. It also appears that this northern stream trough will absorb an upper level low that is shifting eastward over AZ. Moisture associated with the low, combined with moisture arriving with the trough, plus the lift from each system and low level upslope flow behind the cold front, could yield an early season winter storm across the northern mountains and at least northeast NM Sunday through Sunday night. Though the heaviest snow amounts would be across these aforementioned areas, temperatures will be cold enough for snow at many other locations as well, especially Sunday night. Hard to believe that just 8 days ago, high temperatures were in the 90s across much of eastern NM. Models are still in disagreement on what happens with the trough after Sunday, but one thing is for sure, temperatures will stay well below normal well into next week, especially if the white stuff is on the ground to start out the work week. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns for at least the next 7 days. An active weather pattern will continue over the next week with a big change to colder weather in the east on Sunday and Monday, and may be accompanied by snow as well. The back door cold front is easing it's way south across the eastern plains, with low clouds forming behind it. A trough over CA will deepen today and form a closed low tonight, while the remnants of Sergio gradually approach NM from the southwest. High temperatures will be cooler in the east, and about the same in central and western areas. Vent rates will be poor over the eastern plains, and mostly good to excellent elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms will impact northwest and eastern NM late this morning into tonight, with snow on the higher northern mountain peaks. RH recoveries will be mostly excellent tonight. A weak wind shift to the northeast will occur in the northeast late tonight into Friday morning. The remnant low of Sergio will approach NM Friday, and will move from the Bootheel to the East Central Plains Friday night, then exit the state Saturday. Welcome rain will fall over southern NM, mostly south of I-40. Rain amounts should average around 0.25 to 0.50 inches in our southern tier zones. highs will rise some on Friday and hold nearly steady on Saturday. Fair to poor ventilation will cover all of western and central NM Friday, then will be confined to the West Central Highlands and East Central Plains Saturday. There is high confidence that a powerful back door cold front will plow southwest through eastern NM Sunday and easily bring the coldest temperatures of this fall season. Meanwhile the western low will drift slowly east and cross NM Sunday. Precipitation will break out Saturday night, especially over the Sangres and northeast, with widespread precipitation Sunday and Sunday night, finally tapering off Monday. The first significant snow event will occur Sunday into Monday. Snow Sunday over the northern mountains and northeast will spread west and south Sunday night, before ending Monday. Light to moderate snow amounts are likely over the North Central Mountains and Northeast Highlands and Plains. High temperatures will plummet Sunday and Monday, especially in the east, where highs Sunday and Monday will be 25 to 35 degrees below normal! A trough in the northern branch of the jet stream will swing through Monday with lingering precipitation in the south and east. Tuesday will be mostly dry and milder. CHJ && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A backdoor cold front will slide across the northeast and east central plains tonight with MVFR/IFR ceilings developing behind the front through the night, including at KTCC. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the rest of the region. An upper level trough will move southeastward across western CO today, bringing isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms to northern and far eastern NM in the afternoon. Southwest winds will gust to around 30 knots across the northeast highlands this afternoon, including at KLVS, while south winds will gust to between 25 and 30 knots across the northeast plains. VFR conditions will dominate today, though brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible in the stronger showers and thunderstorms across northern and far eastern NM. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$