814 FXUS65 KABQ 102130 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough crossing the central Rockies will bring a chance for rain and high terrain snow showers, and a few thunderstorms, to northwest areas Thursday and Thursday night. There will also be scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across the far eastern plains. The remnants of former Hurricane Sergio are forecast to cross southern and eastern areas Friday through Saturday. Moderate rainfall should be relegated along and south of Highway 60, and also in the Tucumcari area. Locations along and east of the south central mountains could receive nearly three quarters of an inch of rainfall. An upper level trough will then dive southeastward across New Mexico Saturday night through Sunday night with widespread precipitation. A strong back door cold front will precede the system dropping the snow level to valley bottoms across northeast areas Sunday, then over portions of east central New Mexico on Sunday night. Several inches of snow accumulation will be possible in the mountains, with a few inches across lower elevations of the northeast. The weather will remain unsettled into early next week as an upper level low pressure system moves inland over the Desert Southwest from the southern California coast. && .DISCUSSION... Low temperatures should briefly touch freezing tonight across portions of the northeast highlands and northeast plains, but no location is expected to stay at freezing for very long; therefore, we abstained from issuing a Freeze Warning. A back door cold front will sag into the east with low clouds and patchy fog mainly along and north of a line from Las Vegas to Tucumcari. The upper trough crossing the central Rockies on Thursday will strengthen the flow aloft with breezy conditions developing along and just east of the central mountain chain. Aside from rain and mountain snow showers across northwest areas, the system will draw a moist low level return flow into the eastern plains with showers and thunderstorms developing near the eastern border Thursday afternoon and night. Models are in fairly good agreement now on the track and timing of precipitation associated with the remnants of former Hurricane Sergio. The heaviest rainfall should occur Friday night through Saturday morning. Most of the I-40 corridor west of Tucumcari should only receive a few hundredths of an inch of rain with heavier amounts farther south and east. Flash flooding is unlikely as the system will cross quickly and the rainfall doesn't look too excessive. The storm system crossing Saturday night through Sunday night looks impactful as the mountains and portions of the plains receive their first significant snow of the season. Accumulating rainfall will be likely elsewhere as well. Thunderstorms with the system may be relegated to west central and southwest areas. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns on the horizon for at least the next 7 days as an active weather pattern continues across NM. An upper level wave approaching the Four Corners today will spread clouds, showers, and high mountain snow over the northwestern half of the state into Thursday. A few storms are possible near the TX state line Thursday afternoon. Overnight humidity recoveries will be good to excellent in all areas with patchy fog possible in the east. The remnant moisture from Sergio will skirt southern NM Friday and Friday night with the bulk of rainfall accumulations south of the I- 40 corridor. A slow-moving upper level low will then take shape over southern California behind Sergio and spread more cloud cover over NM with below normal temperatures and relatively high humidity. Vent rates will deteriorate with overall weaker atmospheric flow. There is high confidence that a potent back door cold front will move southwest through eastern NM Sunday and introduce the coldest temperatures of this fall season. Rain and mountain snow is expected to develop over the northern mts and northeastern NM late Sunday then spread southwest into central NM Sunday night. Below normal temperatures, light to moderate snowfall accumulations, and valley rain showers may impact much of the area through Monday. Guyer && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Low cigs have rapidly eroded within the Pecos Valley as of 18Z. The last hold out will be around KCAO as winds veer to the southwest and increase through 20Z. Elsewhere, stronger westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper wave will generate slightly breezy conditions later this afternoon, particularly in the area from KSAF to KLVS and KTCC. A weak back door frontal boundary will move southwest across northeastern NM tonight with potential for IFR low cigs in its wake. Confidence was not high enough to include impacts at KLVS or KTCC and later shifts will get a closer look. Clouds will increase Thursday over the northwestern half of NM with -SHRA and high mountain snow throughout the day. Guyer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 63 41 65 / 10 40 30 5 Dulce........................... 33 56 36 62 / 10 60 60 5 Cuba............................ 36 60 40 61 / 0 20 50 10 Gallup.......................... 36 60 38 61 / 0 20 20 10 El Morro........................ 31 61 37 61 / 0 5 20 20 Grants.......................... 34 63 39 63 / 0 5 20 10 Quemado......................... 33 62 41 63 / 0 0 20 30 Glenwood........................ 43 69 49 68 / 0 10 20 50 Chama........................... 30 49 32 55 / 10 70 70 10 Los Alamos...................... 40 60 43 61 / 0 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 36 60 42 62 / 0 10 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 35 54 39 58 / 5 20 50 5 Red River....................... 29 45 32 50 / 5 30 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 25 55 29 57 / 5 10 40 10 Taos............................ 32 60 35 62 / 5 10 30 5 Mora............................ 32 59 38 61 / 0 10 10 10 Espanola........................ 38 65 42 66 / 0 5 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 39 60 44 62 / 0 5 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 37 65 41 66 / 0 5 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 45 68 49 68 / 0 5 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 70 49 69 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 72 48 71 / 0 0 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 71 47 71 / 0 5 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 42 73 46 71 / 0 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 44 70 47 70 / 0 5 10 10 Socorro......................... 46 74 50 72 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 63 44 62 / 0 5 10 10 Tijeras......................... 39 66 43 65 / 0 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 69 40 68 / 0 0 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 36 63 43 64 / 0 5 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 40 67 44 67 / 0 0 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 45 69 49 67 / 0 0 5 30 Ruidoso......................... 42 63 45 61 / 0 0 10 40 Capulin......................... 29 57 36 59 / 5 5 5 5 Raton........................... 32 62 38 64 / 0 5 10 5 Springer........................ 33 65 41 65 / 0 5 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 32 61 40 63 / 0 5 10 10 Clayton......................... 33 54 43 60 / 10 20 30 5 Roy............................. 33 58 43 63 / 0 5 10 5 Conchas......................... 40 66 49 71 / 0 5 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 40 69 49 71 / 0 5 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 41 66 50 70 / 0 10 10 5 Clovis.......................... 43 65 51 70 / 0 30 30 10 Portales........................ 44 69 52 72 / 0 30 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 42 69 51 72 / 0 20 10 10 Roswell......................... 47 77 53 76 / 0 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 44 73 50 71 / 0 5 10 20 Elk............................. 44 69 47 68 / 0 5 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 44