485 FXUS65 KABQ 101808 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1208 PM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Low cigs have rapidly eroded within the Pecos Valley as of 18Z. The last hold out will be around KCAO as winds veer to the southwest and increase through 20Z. Elsewhere, stronger westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper wave will generate slightly breezy conditions later this afternoon, particularly in the area from KSAF to KLVS and KTCC. A weak back door frontal boundary will move southwest across northeastern NM tonight with potential for IFR low cigs in its wake. Confidence was not high enough to include impacts at KLVS or KTCC and later shifts will get a closer look. Clouds will increase Thursday over the northwestern half of NM with -SHRA and high mountain snow throughout the day. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...255 AM MDT Wed Oct 10 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures are expected today across the Land of Enchantment as west to southwesterly breezes return this afternoon. On Thursday, thunderstorms will be possible near the Texas border during the afternoon hours, while mainly showers return across northwestern portions of the state. Remnants from Tropical Storm Sergio are expected to arrive Friday night and persist through mid day Saturday. Rainfall will mainly impact areas along and south of a line from Quemado to Tucumcari, however, rainfall amounts are trending downward. A strong cold front is expected Saturday night into Sunday, which will drop temperatures well below normal, especially across eastern New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Abundant low clouds and patchy fog across the northeast and east central plains are keeping temperatures from falling early this morning. Confidence in the Freeze Warning is decreasing, except for areas in the Estancia Valley and lower Chama River Valley. However, the night is young, and the lowest temperatures are expected just before sunrise. Therefore, will keep the Freeze Warning intact for now, but it will be close. The low clouds will clear out by mid morning as a surface low develops across northeast NM with zonal flow aloft. The resultant west to southwest surface flow will help to increase temperatures over yesterday's readings, though will still remain below normal. Tonight, a weak back door front will nudge into the northeast plains. Temperatures will again be close to the freezing mark around RTN, LVS and Moriarty, unless clouds again wreak havoc. Day shift will need to re-evaluate and issue another Freeze Warning if warranted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible near the Texas border on Thursday afternoon as some Gulf moisture advects northward. Some modest moisture will also move into northwest NM with west/southwest flow aloft. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible in this area. Tropical Storm Sergio, or rather the remnants thereof, still look like they will track east-northeast across southeast New Mexico Friday night through mid day Saturday. Though the track and timing have not changed significantly from yesterday, QPF amounts have lowered considerably via the ECMWF and the NAM QPF amounts are not impressive what-so-ever. GFS remains more bullish, but overall, thinking rainfall amounts will not be as impressive as originally thought. In fact, if the EC and NAM are correct, most areas will struggle to see 0.25". Official forecast amounts may need to be trended downward if light model QPF persists. A northern stream trough is still expected to dive southward on Sunday and an associated cold front will race through New Mexico. Temperatures on Sunday will be 25 to 35 degrees below normal across northeast and east central NM. Some snowfall is also possible. Meanwhile, a Pacific low will be churning off the coast of SoCal and looks to slowly inch toward NM early next week. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible each day, but there remains too many uncertainties regarding it's track and timing to nail down when and where. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... Pretty active weather pattern through the next seven days. A short wave trough will pass to our north today, with breezy to locally windy conditions over the northern mountains into the northeast. There will be some rain and high elevation snow showers over the northern mountains. Patchy dense fog exist this morning along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo's but should burn off by mid morning. Highs today will be noticeably milder, especially in the east, but still below normal. Ventilation rates will be good to excellent. A back door cold front will ease down part of the eastern plains tonight, making for a chilly night tonight in the northeast. It will be dry areawide with typically cool temperatures elsewhere. Humidity recoveries will be good in the west and excellent in the east. Southerly flow across the eastern plains Thursday will help start showers and thunderstorms there. Meanwhile another short wave trough will pass by to our north, and could produce some rain showers over the northwest and north central mountains. Highs will be a little cooler in the east and slightly warmer central and west. Areas of poor ventilation are likely Thursday. Mostly excellent RH recovery Thursday night. A closed low will be forming off the CA coast later this week, while the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio cross the Baja Peninsula into Sonora, Mexico. The moisture from Sergio will be the first to impact NM, as it crosses west Texas into southeast NM Friday night, before departing the state quickly on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the southwest and south central areas during the Friday, then spread northeast Friday night, before diminishing on Saturday. The heaviest rainfall should be across the far southern portion of the forecast area and the east central plains, where one half to one inch of rain could be common. Areas of fair to poor ventilation will be observed over the west and far northeast Friday, while the north central mountains and east will have widespread poor rates Saturday. The closed low to our west will meander southeast to the Baja Peninsula this weekend, while a northern branch short wave trough zips toward NM Sunday. A strong back door cold front is still on pace to reach eastern NM Saturday, likely spilling into the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers and high elevation snow showers will develop Saturday night and continue Sunday in most areas. It will be cooler in the west Sunday and colder in the east, with highs around 30 degrees lower than on Saturday for most of the eastern plains. Finally the closed low to our southwest will lift northeast through the first half of next week, although the ECMWF never brings the low to NM, keeping it west and northwest of us. Isolated to scattered rain showers and high elevation snow showers will be forecast, favoring the west and central areas. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$