283 FXUS65 KABQ 092142 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 342 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms are lingering over portions of northern and central New Mexico today, and a cold front has invaded much of the eastern plains. This front dropped temperatures several more degrees across the east while all of the state continues to remain below average for early October. Light snow has fallen over the higher mountain peaks, and an additional dusting to couple of inches will be possible through the overnight, mainly within northern New Mexico. A brief drier weather pattern will unfold Wednesday, and temperatures will warm a few to several degrees. Moisture will increase in far eastern New Mexico Thursday, possibly producing a few showers and thunderstorms. By late Friday and early Saturday, remnant moisture from Sergio, currently a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific waters, will move into parts of southern New Mexico. This will lead to a brief period of widespread rainfall for the southern tier of the state. && .DISCUSSION... Much cooler and more autumn-like temperatures are being observed in northeast NM, while all remaining areas are also below average by 10 to 20 degrees. Stable conditions in the wake of the cold front are limiting showers, but a few light batches of stratiform rain are ongoing in the northeast. Remaining areas of the state are observing scattered showers and even a few stray thunderstorms with light snow in the Sangre de Cristos and a few other high peak areas. The extent of shower coverage should diminish through the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes and the upper trough axis shifts east of NM. Just a few light flurries should linger beyond midnight in the northern mountains. Will be upgrading the Freeze Watch to a Warning with this forecast package issuance. Some patchy fog and freezing fog will be possible Wednesday morning, namely in the north central and northeastern zones. Thereafter, a drier and warmer day will be on hand Wednesday as a quick-moving low dampens into a short wave as it crosses from UT to CO. Pressure heights will abruptly rise, and dry westerly flow over NM will keep downsloping breezes at work, and this will allow temperatures to rebound several degrees. Despite the rapid warm-up, temperatures will still fall short of average by a couple to a few degrees Wednesday afternoon. The perturbed flow aloft will stay intact over western NM, giving way to pressure falls over the Great Basin and far west coast, part of a longer wave trough that will be carving out over the west. West southwest flow over NM could feed some meager moisture into northwestern and north central NM on Thursday while the plains see a moist return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Sufficient instability could accompany this low layer moisture in the far eastern plains for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening. Into Friday, a cut-off low pressure system is expected to develop off of the CA coast while attention is focused toward the remnants of Sergio, now downgraded to a tropical storm in the open eastern Pacific waters. The remnant moisture from Sergio will be drifting northeastward on Friday, likely over the Baja peninsula and into Sonora and AZ/NM. The forecast is slowly garnering confidence, but there is still ample time for significant changes to the trajectory of Sergio's moisture swath, especially with a difficult-to-forecast cut-off low to its northwest. At this point, the southern tier of NM still appears to be favored for a widespread, but quick, increase in rainfall. Again, the steering flow for the remnants of Sergio still appears quite strong, limiting the precipitation amounts and flooding potential. The remnant moisture from Sergio would exit quickly to the east northeast through the day Saturday, but two additional sources for unsettled weather will remain with the aforementioned cut-off low, and a northern stream trough with a potent cold front. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level trough will continue to produce scattered to isolated rain showers and mountain snow showers mainly across northern and eastern areas through the evening as it begins to exit the area to the northeast. Light additional snow accumulations are expected above 8,000 feet in the northern mountains. In the wake of the upper level trough high temperatures will climb a few to 14 degrees above today's readings on Wednesday. A secondary upper trough will cross the central Rockies on Wednesday producing breezy to windy conditions in the Sangre de Cristo and Tusas Mountains, and breezy conditions in portions of east central and northeast NM Wednesday afternoon. The system could produce a few rain and snow showers in the mountains near the NM/CO border. Another upper level trough will dig and form a closed upper level low pressure system over the CA coast Thursday and Thursday night, drawing a southeasterly return flow of low level moisture into the eastern plains with showers and thunderstorms. There will also be a chance for rain showers and high terrain snow showers in the northern mountains and across western areas Thursday night. The upper level trough associated with Tropical Storm Sergio's remnants is forecast to track northeastward across southern and eastern NM Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locations along and south of I-40 should be favored for the heaviest rainfall, with over 1 inch in some areas. Lighter amounts are generally expected in the quadrant of the forecast area that is both north of I-40 and west of I-25. Little or no precipitation is expected near the Four Corners. The latest model runs hold the upper low over the CA coast at bay while an upper level trough crosses the state from the north northwest Saturday night through Monday morning. The upper low west of NM is forecast to draw a gusty and moist back door cold front into the state just before the arrival of the upper level trough, which should enable the system to produce wetting rainfall mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. There will probably also be accumulating snow in the mountains, and potentially across lower elevations of the northeast. 44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level trough will continue to track slowly eastward across northern and central NM today with scattered to isolated rain showers and a few thunderstorms, except for more widespread activity from the northern mountains eastward and across the east central plains. There will even be accumulating snow across the high terrain of the northern mountains and areas of more persistent rain and ceiling restrictions behind a back door cold front lingering across portions of the far east central and northeast plains. Mountain obscurations are expected. The upper level trough will lift northeast of NM tonight, but rain showers and mountain snow showers will linger generally until midnight. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning in the Moreno Valley (including AXX) and across parts of the eastern plains. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 63 41 64 / 10 10 5 10 Dulce........................... 32 57 32 61 / 30 30 5 20 Cuba............................ 34 60 37 62 / 20 5 5 5 Gallup.......................... 33 60 34 62 / 10 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 29 60 30 63 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 63 33 66 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 63 36 64 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 70 44 71 / 10 0 0 5 Chama........................... 28 50 28 54 / 40 40 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 37 60 42 61 / 30 5 5 0 Pecos........................... 33 60 37 62 / 30 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 53 34 57 / 30 10 5 5 Red River....................... 26 48 27 52 / 30 10 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 20 52 23 56 / 30 10 5 5 Taos............................ 31 59 32 62 / 30 5 5 5 Mora............................ 29 60 32 62 / 40 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 32 65 37 68 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 36 60 40 62 / 20 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 65 38 66 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 67 44 70 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 69 47 72 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 71 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 69 43 72 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 39 72 41 74 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 70 43 72 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 43 73 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 61 41 64 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 37 65 39 67 / 20 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 67 32 69 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 62 36 66 / 20 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 38 66 40 69 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 67 45 71 / 10 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 38 61 41 66 / 10 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 28 57 30 58 / 30 0 10 10 Raton........................... 30 60 33 62 / 30 0 10 5 Springer........................ 32 65 36 66 / 30 0 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 30 62 32 63 / 30 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 32 60 35 56 / 20 0 10 10 Roy............................. 32 64 35 61 / 30 0 5 10 Conchas......................... 37 72 42 68 / 30 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 38 71 42 71 / 20 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 37 72 43 69 / 20 0 0 20 Clovis.......................... 39 69 44 66 / 20 0 0 20 Portales........................ 40 71 45 69 / 20 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 40 70 43 72 / 20 0 0 20 Roswell......................... 46 76 49 78 / 20 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 42 72 46 74 / 20 0 0 10 Elk............................. 41 68 44 70 / 10 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from 2 AM MDT Wednesday through Wednesday morning for the following zones... NMZ517-522-528>531. && $$ 52