317 FXUS65 KABQ 091804 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE An upper level trough will continue to track slowly eastward across northern and central NM today with scattered to isolated rain showers and a few thunderstorms, except for more widespread activity from the northern mountains eastward and across the east central plains. There will even be accumulating snow across the high terrain of the northern mountains and areas of more persistent rain and ceiling restrictions behind a back door cold front lingering across portions of the far east central and northeast plains. Mountain obscurations are expected. The upper level trough will lift northeast of NM tonight, but rain showers and mountain snow showers will linger generally until midnight. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning in the Moreno Valley (including AXX) and across parts of the eastern plains. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1052 AM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018... .UPDATE... A quick update is being sent to add NMZ517 (lower Chama River valley, including Espanola) to the freeze watch. Otherwise, the temperature and POP forecast looks to be on track. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT Tue Oct 9 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Well below normal temperatures are expected today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms, most numerous across northeast New Mexico, will return by mid morning and will continue through the evening. Light snow accumulations can be expected, mainly for elevations above 8500 feet in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cold temperatures will persist tonight, with some areas of northern New Mexico seeing the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. The first freeze is also possible for areas around Las Vegas and Moriarty as well. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday. The big story for the end of the week will be precipitation related to Hurricane Sergio. Between one half and 1.25 inches of rain appears likely across much of southern New Mexico Friday night through mid day Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... An active week ahead. Well below normal temperatures are expected today thanks to a fall storm system passing overhead and an associated back door cold front sliding down the plains. Showers continue to shift eastward out of the eastern plains of NM this morning, however, upslope flow behind the back door front will yield additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms today as well. 700 mb temperatures between 0 and -1 degC will allow the white stuff to fall on the peaks of the Sangres, generally above 8500-9000 feet. Showers will also be possible across much of central and western NM as well, though amounts will be light. Following the trough passage and the front, temperatures are expected to be some of the coldest of the season thus far across northern NM. Freezing temperatures are possible for portions of the NE plains as well as the Estancia Valley. Several hours of freezing temperatures are expected. A Freeze Watch has been issued for these areas. On Wednesday, temperatures will warm thanks to zonal flow aloft and a developing surface low over northeast NM. Despite the warming, high temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Thursday will be a few degrees warmer still for most areas, but an increase in cloud cover and a return to more precipitation chances will slow the warming trend. Thunderstorm chances will return to areas near the Texas border as a tongue of Gulf Moisture advects into the area. Some weak surface convergence is noted and the nose of an upper level jet will be punching into the area. A few showers will also be possible across the northwest, but QPF amounts would be light. All eyes then turn toward Sergio. Models are in MUCH better agreement this morning regarding Sergio's path and heaviest precipitation placement. Still expect to see some changes, however, since models are still disagreeing on how the upstream low/trough evolves. Nonetheless, Sergio's precipitation looks like it will start impacting the ABQ CWA Friday night, initially across southwest and south central areas. Precipitation will quickly spread east and northeast across the area, generally having the greatest impact along and south of a line from Quemado to Tucumcari. Precipitation will linger through the morning hours on Saturday across east central NM before diminishing. Between one half and 1.25" of rain appears likely at this time. The quick-hitting nature of the system will prevent much higher amounts outside of localized areas. After Saturday morning, forecast confidence drops. The aforementioned upstream trough may either 1.) move across NM or 2.) retrograde into the Pacific, depending on forecast model. Regardless, more energy will be dropping southward, and it appears a hefty cold front will arrive late Saturday into Sunday. This will drop temperatures considerably, especially across the east, and may bring some snow to portions of northeast NM. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A slow moving trough will meander across NM today with showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow all in the mix. The back door cold front is slowly moving south across the eastern plains and will continue to do so today. It will be downright chilly in the far northeast with temperatures in the 40s. Highs everywhere will be below normal by 10 to 25 degrees. Several inches of snow will accumulate above 10,000 feet. Precipitation will diminish tonight but more snow showers are expected over the northern mountains. It will be chilly tonight with the first freeze of the season possible in much of the northeast. Another weaker short wave trough will pass to our north Wednesday, bringing mostly dry weather. Blustery winds will be noted over the northern mountains and northeast. High will moderate everywhere but remain below normal. A trough and closed low will form over the west Thursday and draw low level moisture north onto the Eastern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form on the Eastern Plains Thursday. Breezy to locally windy conditions should be felt in the northeast quarter of the state. Temperatures will climb a little higher but still remain mostly below normal. Next we will deal with the remnants of Hurricane Sergio Friday and Saturday. Models are in pretty good agreement on the track and timing of the storm. They show most of the rain will fall over the southern half of the state. Areas south of I-40 could see around 1.00 inch of rain, with lesser amounts north of I-40. A strong back door cold front Saturday night will produce chilly and unsettled conditions Sunday, especially in the east. Snow will fall over the northern mountains into the northeast Sunday and Sunday night. Dry with moderating temperatures early next week. Poor ventilation will plague some areas through early next week. Poor rates will occur in much of the east today, and parts of the east Thursday. Widespread poor rates are expected Friday while confined to the east Saturday. Widespread poor rates return Monday. CHJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for the following zones... NMZ517-522-528>531. && $$